rbanffy 4 days ago

One case is Bolsonaro in Brazil. He was elected and wasn’t re-elected four years later. He now will face trial for his attempted coup.

  • readthenotes1 4 days ago

    The author even says "Finland 1932 is the only clean win I can find".

    So not 0.

    Maybe 0 when the future dictator is invited to power as a deep state move, not by the people but by the government?

    • glimmung 3 days ago

      Nope, the author's point is about what happens after fascists are elected, and he proposed no exceptions to that.

      Finland was not cited as an exception. His point about Finland was that the fascists messed up - they tried to use violence before that point.

  • sfpotter 4 days ago

    IMO this the most apt comparison with the US. Unfortunately we don't have a robust leftwing alternative. We had our Lula in the form of Sanders but we saw the DNC's response. I think if we fail to prevent fascism in this case it is most likely to be the democrats' fault.

    • foogazi 4 days ago

      Fascism is the fascists fault

      Assigning the blame to the “other” side seems like a cop out.

      • xtiansimon 3 days ago

        > “…side seems like a cop out.”

        I’d rather describe blaming “the Democrats“ as adopting the framing of this administration. They blame all “Democrats”, name a wide range of strawmen using the former president’s name like an adjective.

        It’s quite destructive running around screaming rape, murder, fire. The president is willing to do it, the current congressional majority is all in, and the Supreme Court is YOLO. All branches are captured by the propaganda of this corrupt administration. This boat don’t turn around on the drop of a dime.

        • sfpotter 3 days ago

          I'm not adopting the current administration's framing.

      • 000ooo000 4 days ago

        This is like saying failure to prevent crime is the criminals' fault.

        • Eddy_Viscosity2 3 days ago

          It is saying that crime is the criminals fault.

          • 000ooo000 2 days ago

            OP said failure to prevent fascism is the Democrats' fault. The reply said fascism is fascists' fault. Two different things. Where exactly is the insight in 'fascism is the fascists' fault'?

    • dlachausse 4 days ago

      The Democrat party's primaries aren't very democratic. The party elites selected (Hillary) Clinton, Biden, and Harris. Obama was the last candidate chosen by the people.

IAmBroom 3 days ago

More accurate title:

"I researched every attempt to stop fascism by democratic means. The success rate is 0%"

Also see:

"I tried to talk the neighborhood bully out of punching me in the face. The success rate is 0%"

I get that it poses an alarming precedent for our future in the US, but we haven't fully failed yet. Teetering, maybe. And if we fail, no election is going to save us, nor save the world from us.

numa7numa7 4 days ago

> We already have two incompatible visions of what America should be. One side wants a multi-ethnic democracy with a social safety net. The other wants a white Christian ethnostate with unlimited corporate power.

Isn't JD Vance married to an Indian lady?

The article is very interesting and smart and well written with some really great ideas, but I think there may be a little bit of hyperbole which Im still ok with.

  • tkel 4 days ago

    And Thomas Jefferson had children with his slave.

    • exolymph 3 days ago

      Point being? Are you insinuating that Usha Vance is treated equivalent to a chattel slave? That seems... incorrect.

    • smitty1e 4 days ago

      And then there was a bloody civil war to eliminate chattel slavery.

      These days we have more sophisticated control mechanisms involving government regulations.

      • jfengel 3 days ago

        Do we? We seem to be busily dismantling that, along with the apparatus of enforcing it.

        • smitty1e 2 days ago

          Are we? I would enjoy the privilege of walking away from Social Security like the misguided idea it is.

          • jfengel 2 days ago

            OP was referring to regulations rather than debt or entitlements. Thus far we haven't done much to social security (other than firing the help desks, which doesn't really cut into the actual cost.)

            Walking away from it would be, uh, problematic. Especially for the demographic who voted most enthusiastically for this administration. Which might make for some poetic justice, but a lot of others would also find themselves in dire straits.

            • smitty1e a day ago

              > OP was referring to regulations rather than debt or entitlements.

              One can clearly offer these differentiations, but it's all so much Utopian Progressivism that has simply not withstood the test of time, if we're being honest about the debt.

              But honesty scales like Utopian Progressivism, so expect continued ignoring of the problem until the economy 'splodes and the "experts" stand around looking aghast.

              • jfengel 5 hours ago

                Er, as far as I can tell, the debt explosion is accelerating, and I'm pretty sure that those responsible right now are not Utopian Progressives.

                • smitty1e 3 hours ago

                  "right now" is working hard here.

                  But this gets at why precedent is such a cautionary thing.

  • IAmBroom 3 days ago

    > Isn't JD Vance married to an Indian lady?

    What's your point? One GOP married a brown-skinned person, so they all get a pass?

    • numa7numa7 a day ago

      My point is that I don't think the right wants a "white Christian ethnostate".

      This is the equivalent of a person on the right calling all liberals "coastal elites that support child molestation"

      It's a tribal trait to demonize the "other".

      And I say that being mostly a leftist.

jleyank 4 days ago

Perhaps it's time to fork the united states and see how each half goes. One half will have food. One half will have money. There's probably enough guns and enough disorder to keep things messy. Very messy.

I guess we can take Irish solution and employ work-to-rule, passive resistance and the like. Prevent the cash from leaving the state, prevent the Guard from mobilizing or leaving the state. Rely on ejecting non-whites and women from the services doing a number on effectiveness.

Who gets to invoke Nato? The nukes are in red states I think, will they nuke themselves? Is there enough of an edge to teeter on to get people to wake up and turn on other branches of government? The Civil War was bloody. The French Revolution was bloody, perhaps the lack-of-bloodthirstiness will help people say "ah, f*ck it" and let things part?

Never, ever thought this sh*t possible. And so quickly... Puts China in a very odd position, trying to determine which result is optimal for China. Strong, well-armed rogue states aren't good for business.

  • tmarman 4 days ago

    California represents ~15% of GDP and 11% of the agricultural output including 33% of vegetables and 75% of fruits and nuts. Just saying.

    • dlachausse 4 days ago

      > 11% of the agricultural output including 33% of vegetables and 75% of fruits and nuts. Just saying.

      That's the RED part of California. Just saying.

      • peterleiser 3 days ago

        Definitely red. But I think in northern and central california the whole blue city / red outside cities thing is kind of like the European Coal and Steel Community. So much shared infrastructure and interdependence, and water and electricity is not evenly distributed.

vgivanovic 4 days ago

Why was this post flagged?

  • rbanffy 3 days ago

    Not sure. The discussion remains civil.

mrjay42 4 days ago

Could it be a case of "unwanted fallacy"? (bear with me)

I mean: At almost any point in time, when fascists are NOT in power, it's because they were, one way or another, stopped.

The logic would be: fascism is a systematic/automatic force that wants to seize power, usually by basing its ideology on anti-intellectualism, glorified past, enemies of the nation that must be eliminated/deported, imperialist motives (conquest, war, etc.).

This systematic force always exists. It always exists because there are always people who wants to dominate, oppress, express violence against this or that group of people.

Therefore, the few times fascists reached power in any country around the world it's because of a combination of factors and that's what we KNOW about.

For instance, this movement https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boulangisme never reached power. BUT it for sure planted the seeds of future hatred, extreme nationalism, etc. and they were VERY determined to take the power, and they didn't. But we don't 'count' it as "fascism that was stopped" because there was no clear, obvious, big event that we can pinpoint as fascists being stopped.

  • bryanlarsen 4 days ago

    Copying mathgeeks comment on another post:

    The actual claim in the blog post:

    > Once fascists win power democratically, they have never been removed democratically. Not once. Ever.

    Boulangisme never reached power democratically, so not a relevant example.

queenkjuul 3 days ago

The Soviet army might disagree :)

But yeah, we're screwed

nabla9 4 days ago

He mentions Finland and Lapua movement as an example and it's correct, but there are others.

United Sates:

There was Ku Klux Klan (KKK) in the south.

In the 1930s fascism became very popular in the US. 25% of Americans listened regularly fascist radio program from father Charles Coughlin. "It is fascism or communism. We are at the crossroads. I take the road to fascism.” Large number of "shirts" organizations (fascists with different shirt colors, silver, black, green, .. ). In the Congress America First Committee, while not a fascist organization itself, included several core members with antisemitic and pro-fascist sympathies.

  • AstralStorm 4 days ago

    That only did not happen because the US national pride was wounded by the Japanese.

    • IAmBroom 3 days ago

      Technicality. It still did not happen.

numa7numa7 4 days ago

> What would the red states do, invade California?

They would shut off the water supply to California

  • peterleiser 4 days ago

    Southern California is vulnerable to that, but not Northern California. California is the largest food producer to the US, including about 1/3 of our fresh vegetables and 3/4 of fruits and nuts. The country wouldn't starve without California, but I sure wouldn't want to experience a situation where California stops exporting to red states.

    • dlachausse 4 days ago

      The agricultural parts of California are largely red. In this hypothetical scenario, why wouldn't they pull a West Virginia and secede from Southern California to be with their ideological brethren?

      If you look at an electoral map by county of the United States, you'll see that the major cities are blue and almost everything else is red. The everything else is the part of America that produces food and manufactured goods.

      https://tmp.propublica.org/assets/img/2024-us-election-resul...

      • peterleiser 3 days ago

        Yes, just a thought experiment. I grew up on a farm in Northern California (mostly rice and tomatoes), lived in the bay area for 20 years for college and working in tech, and now live in a red state. I tell people the same thing you do about blue cities and red everything else. It's bizarre how many people in red states and blue states don't know that (and don't want to believe it).

  • AstralStorm 4 days ago

    Good try, the state is rich and borders the ocean.

    They can afford water facilities.

    • IAmBroom 3 days ago

      Seawater isn't useful for agriculture, nor drinking.

      • peterleiser 3 days ago

        California Democrats would need to choose pragmatism over party and rapidly deploy nuclear power for desalination.

        But states playing no-rules hardball with each other would end up being a gigantic fail for everyone.

DaveZale 4 days ago

very thoughtful. Obviously many conscientious Israelis are leaving their country (it's a real thing). Likewise with the US.

I am in the US, but my approach to the oligarchy/AIPAC takeover is real simple, though maybe not effective: just cut spending to a bare minimum. The billionaires need to make more more more, well not if I can help it. Politcally, everyone should switch to Independent status! Don't let them takw your vote for granted. Never ever vote straight party choices. It's more work to research each candidate but hey, enjoy learning sometimes unsavory details. Check opensecrets.org about who is bankrolling each candidate. Read responsible alternative news sources that don't push ads, and donate to the best ones.

symbolicAGI 4 days ago

Fascism does not work in the long run economically. The grifter state fails.

OP Refuted by:

Italy (Mussolini’s Fascist Regime)

Spain (Franco’s Regime)

Portugal (Estado Novo)

Chile (Pinochet)

  • mathgeek 4 days ago

    The actual claim in the blog post:

    > Once fascists win power democratically, they have never been removed democratically. Not once. Ever.

    • AstralStorm 4 days ago

      The claim is false, as long as they are unable to change the form of the government they tend to flame out and lose support quickly, because there's not that much substance behind their populism. They tend to have no real plan that's why different from a typical warlord, just on a slightly bigger scale.

      Unless they go to war...

      The real issue is that nobody with any degree of power really cares.

  • debo_ 4 days ago

    Several of your cited cases are mentioned in the article. The article's actual claim is:

    > Here's what I found: Once fascists win power democratically, they have never been removed democratically.

  • kjellsbells 4 days ago

    Ok, so the states fall, but not before existing for at least a generation and in some cases effectively an entire working life:

    - Francoist Spain: 40 years.

    - Pinochet Chile: 17 years.

    - Salazar Portugal: 36 years.

    If you were 22 when Pinochet took power for example you didn't see the end until 39. Your best years lost. And that's the "lite" version. (I ignored Italy because of WW2)

    If the US MAGA contingent gloms on to this fascism malarkey by anointing a true believer after Trumps inevitable death (he is pushing 80, after all) we would be looking at decades of loss.

    • litoE 4 days ago

      On the other hand, Pinochet in Chile held an election in 1988. The choices were to keep him as president or replace him with a constitutional government. He lost (55% to 45%) and he stepped down, allowing a democratic government to replace him. This negates the main thesis, of a 0% success rate in stopping fascism.

    • fredski42 4 days ago

      You think Trump is in power? I do not think he really is. He is a puppet. Others are the Puppet Masters.

      • peterleiser 4 days ago

        Maybe he is, maybe he isn't, but (and I'm genuinely asking) what is your point here?